Senate control hangs on 11 competitive races as Democrats close in
Democrats need four pickups to take the Senate, but Republicans are outspending them by nearly $40 million in these key battlegrounds.
By Justin Brooks ·
Democrats appear within striking distance of the Senate majority on the eve of the November midterm election, with eleven seats now considered competitive. The party needs to flip four Republican-held seats while keeping all of its own to secure control. CNN has expanded its list of likely flip candidates to include South Carolina, Texas, and Kansas, reflecting a national environment that has favored Democrats for months.
President Donald Trump’s approval rating sits at 34%, and voter frustration over the economy, the Iran war, and corruption is driving Democratic energy. Republicans are responding with heavy spending. Over the final month, Republicans outspent Democrats in these eleven races by $560 million to $521 million, according to AdImpact data. Excluding Georgia and North Carolina, where Republicans have reduced spending, the gap widens to approximately $550 million for Republicans versus $469 million for Democrats.
North Carolina leads the list of likely flips. Former Governor Roy Cooper leads Republican Michael Whatley by 14 points among likely voters in a final High Point University/YouGov poll. Democrats spent $10.4 million in the last two weeks compared to $2.5 million from Republicans. In Ohio, former Senator Sherrod Brown leads incumbent Jon Husted by 5 points in the CNN Poll of Polls average. Republicans outspent Democrats by $39 million in October, focusing on taxes and immigration, while Democrats targeted Husted on data centers and an energy scandal.
Texas presents a complex picture. No clear leader exists in the CNN Poll of Polls average, though recent polls from the New York Times/Siena and CNN show Democrat James Talarico ahead of Attorney General Ken Paxton. Elon Musk has accounted for $168 million of the GOP spending on the race. Early voting has seen 7.7 million ballots cast, with Latino voters making up a higher share than in the last election. Senator Ted Cruz warned on his podcast that Republicans could lose every statewide race.
In Maine, Democrat Troy Jackson leads incumbent Susan Collins by 4 points. Collins is the only Republican incumbent running in a state Kamala Harris won in 2024. Republicans have attacked Jackson personally, calling him a crook and a creep in their top ad. In Alaska, the race between Mary Peltola and Dan Sullivan remains tight, with a New York Times/Siena poll showing no clear leader. A dispute over a second candidate named Dan Sullivan has added uncertainty, and the state’s ranked-choice voting system could delay final results for weeks.
Kansas has moved up the rankings as Democrat Adam Hamilton challenges Senator Roger Marshall. A New York Times/Siena poll shows Hamilton leading 49% to 44%. Democratic groups outspent Republicans by $14.2 million in October. Hamilton has $2.9 million in cash on hand, while Marshall has $810,000. In Iowa, Democrat Josh Turek and Republican Ashley Hinson are statistically tied at 46% and 45% respectively in the CNN Poll of Polls average.
Source: CNN
