60%: The size of America's messy political middle, according to new data

In a Houston cafe in January, two women in their early 50s sat across from each other, debating the recent capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro. Shanna Berry, a retired hairdresser and Air Force veteran who supports President Trump, wore a bright yellow cardigan. Her friend, Alma Ong, a Buddhist who grew up in London and identifies as more liberal, listened intently. The pair had initially hesitated to discuss the event, citing their desire to keep politics out of their friendship.

Berry relented and offered her assessment. She felt the end of the regime was necessary, though she remained skeptical about the legalities and the role of oil access. "I feel like the end of the regime was necessary," Berry said. "I'm not sure of the legalities of how it was done and I'm a little jaded by the notion that it also had a very strong leaning towards having access to the oil in Venezuela, but I know that there are a lot of Venezuelan people who are really happy."

Ong’s reaction was one of surprise. She told Berry, "I agree with absolutely everything she just said." The exchange illustrates a pattern political researchers are trying to decode. While surveys often suggest deep division, experts say the gap between perceived and actual polarization is substantial. Kristin Laurin, a psychology professor at the University of British Columbia, identified the cafe conversation as a textbook example of how social friction distorts political reality.

Laurin explained that people avoid political discussion to prevent conflict, which leads them to overestimate their differences. "These two friends were making assumptions about each other that turned out to be totally wrong," Laurin said. "It turned out, actually, they kind of believed the same thing." She noted that political elites often portray opponents as extreme to energize their base, while social media platforms amplify rage to drive engagement. This combination ensures that perceived polarization far outstrips the actual divide.

The Comey indictment in April provided another instance of cross-partisan alignment. Former FBI Director James Comey was charged with making a death threat against the president after posting a photo of seashells on a beach. While Democrats were appalled, many conservatives also expressed outrage. Jonathan Turley, a constitutional law professor at George Washington University Law School, told Fox News, "I must be in a parallel universe to be talking about the shell art of James Comey."

At a riverside restaurant near the Chesapeake Bay in Maryland, voters from both parties expressed support for the First Amendment. Stan Fletcher, a restaurateur who voted for Trump in all three recent elections, said, "Comey has always been an opinionated guy. But no one should be indicted for their opinion, ever." Fletcher believes that 95% of America fits under a bell curve of moderates, while the public hears primarily from the extremes on both sides.

Pew Research Center data supports this view of a complex electorate. The non-partisan group classifies Americans into nine distinct groups based on values. One category, the Pragmatic and Polite Right, includes 56% Republicans or Republican-leaning voters and 37% Democrats or Democratic-leaning voters. This group, which has the oldest average age, values civility and holds conservative economic views while remaining moderate on race and immigration.

Jocelyn Kiley, who leads politics research at Pew, stated, "Once you look beneath Republican and Democratic labels you see a lot of variation within the parties and a lot of overlap." She noted that this messy political middle is larger than the groups at the ideological extremes. Pew estimates that this centrist majority comprises about 60% of the electorate. In contrast, the groups farthest to the right, labeled the No Apologies Right and the Faith First Conservatives, account for just 21% of the population. Kiley added, "We are a highly polarized country and there's also a lot of nuance underneath that."