NC 1st District: 6,000 Vote Margin Decides House Control

Voters in North Carolina's 1st Congressional District will decide on Tuesday whether the U.S. House majority changes hands. The district, located in the state's northeast corner, is one of two seats that could shift the balance of power in the chamber. With Republicans currently holding a narrow majority, both parties view this eastern North Carolina district as a decisive battleground for the national balance.

Democrat U.S. Rep. Don Davis faces a rematch with his 2024 Republican challenger, Laurie Buckhout. Davis has held the seat since 2023, but his position is more vulnerable this cycle. The state General Assembly redrew the district boundaries, moving a share of mostly Black voters into the neighboring 3rd District. This demographic shift is expected to make Davis's path to re-election more difficult than in his first term.

The 2024 contest was tight, with Davis defeating Buckhout by just over 6,000 votes. The district also cast its ballot for President Donald Trump in that cycle, marking it as one of the most closely watched split-ticket districts in the nation. House Majority Leader Steve Scalise called the race one of the most important in the country in an August interview with ABC11.

A second competitive race is unfolding in the state's western 11th Congressional District. Republican U.S. Rep. Chuck Edwards suspended his reelection campaign in August after the House Ethics Committee recommended censure for inappropriate conduct toward two female aides. State House Rep. Jennifer Balkcom was nominated by a Republican executive committee to replace Edwards with less than three months before the election.

Balkcom, who grew up on a farm, is competing against Democrat Jamie Ager, a farmer whose grandfather previously represented the district. Both candidates have prioritized securing funding for further recovery from Hurricane Helene, which devastated the state in 2024. Trump endorsed Balkcom for the race.

The outcome of the 1st District race will determine if the House majority expands or remains unchanged. The 11th District race will determine which party controls the western seat. Both contests will be counted on Tuesday.