Netanyahu Faces Voters in First Israeli Election Since Gaza War Began

Israel enters a new electoral cycle on Tuesday, marking the first general vote since the Hamas-led attack of October 7, 2023, and the subsequent war in Gaza. The contest is tightly contested, with polls indicating no clear winner among the fragmented right-wing factions.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the country's longest-serving leader, seeks a fourth term while under investigation for corruption and facing charges from the International Criminal Court regarding the war in Gaza. He leads a coalition that includes far-right ultranationalists and ultra-Orthodox parties, a bloc that has governed since 2022. His opposition, a self-styled Zionist bloc, has adopted a similar right-wing stance on key issues, blurring the traditional lines of debate.

The campaign focused on domestic friction rather than foreign policy. Major topics included accountability for the security failures preceding the 2023 attack, the military service of ultra-Orthodox men, and the exclusion of Arab-led parties from power. Analysts note that the political center has eroded over decades, accelerated by the 2018 Nation-State Law and the current administration's push to reshape the judiciary.

Ahron Bregman, a senior teaching fellow at King’s College London, observed that the political climate is heavily influenced by Netanyahu’s divisive persona. "If Netanyahu loses the election and, say, [Gadi] Eisenkot becomes the new prime minister, the main initial change will be the atmosphere, the vibe, as Netanyahu stirs deep emotions domestically," Bregman said. He added that while a new leader might calm the political tone, the underlying rightward shift in Israeli society would persist.

Yossi Mekelberg, a senior fellow at Chatham House, framed the vote as a decision on the nature of Israeli governance. "The decision facing Israel of whether to retain a Netanyahu-led government or not is ultimately the decision on whether to live in a functioning democracy or a democracy in name only," Mekelberg stated. He noted the stakes include whether to maintain the occupation of the West Bank or move toward annexation.

Yehouda Shenhav-Shahrabani, an Israeli sociologist, argued that the political system operates within a framework of Jewish supremacy. "None of the leaders who present themselves as an alternative to Netanyahu can genuinely be described as left-wing," Shenhav-Shahrabani said. He noted that Arab-led parties, representing one-fifth of the population, remain excluded from coalition talks by all mainstream candidates.

The election results will determine the direction of a government that has overseen the death of more than 74,000 people in Gaza and expanded military operations into Iran, Lebanon, Yemen, Syria, and Qatar. No mainstream candidate has proposed including Arab-led parties in a post-election government, a dynamic that critics say defines the current political landscape.