Woolly Worm Forecast: Wally Predicts Split Winter

Residents and visitors in Banner Elk, North Carolina, received a split winter forecast on Tuesday when a caterpillar named Wally won the annual Woolly Worm Festival. The winner’s markings suggest a cold and snowy beginning to the season, followed by mild conditions, and ending with a final week of light snow or frost.

The event draws more than 20,000 participants who use the caterpillars to gauge upcoming weather patterns. According to tradition, the thirteen body segments of the woolly worm correspond to the thirteen weeks of winter. Darker markings indicate harsh conditions, while lighter brown stripes point to milder temperatures. Hayden Breckenridge, a board member for the festival, noted that last year’s prediction aligned closely with the actual weather.

"I think it was like to the T. It was definitely cold. I think there was a lot more black on that worm last year, and we had a lot of snow," Breckenridge said. He added that local ski industry representatives typically prefer darker worms because they anticipate better snow conditions.

Festival organizers claim the woolly worm tradition maintains an 80 to 85 percent accuracy rate over the past two decades. However, Christopher Grover, a meteorologist for the National Weather Service in Blacksburg, Virginia, stated that scientific data does not support a direct link between a caterpillar’s appearance and winter weather. He explained that a worm’s coloration depends on genetics, age, and diet rather than atmospheric conditions.

Grover cited the Climate Prediction Center as the primary source for official outlooks. Current predictions for North Carolina include a 38 percent chance of above-normal temperatures and an above-average amount of precipitation due to El Niño. These scientific forecasts generally align with the milder conditions suggested by Wally’s stripes for the middle of the season.

Trevor McKenzie, director of the Center for Appalachian Studies at Appalachian State University, described the tradition as a blend of Native American, African American, and European roots that dates back to colonial times. He noted that such folklore encourages people to observe the natural world. "Sometimes we need these little narratives to kind of engage us in a way," McKenzie said. The next Woolly Worm Festival is scheduled for October 16 and 17, 2027.