Oh simulation sends Bills to first Lombardi Trophy against Vikings

Analytics expert Stephen Oh ran a full-season simulation for the 2026 NFL, and the results point to the Buffalo Bills winning their first championship. The model projects a Super Bowl LXI matchup between the Bills and the Minnesota Vikings, a scenario that emerges after the previously unbeaten Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers both lost in Week 7. Oh simulated the remaining 165 regular-season games and all 13 playoff contests to determine these outcomes.

The simulation awards the No. 1 seed in the AFC to the Bills, who hold a 5-1 record. The Chiefs, also 5-1, drop to the No. 2 spot. The Jacksonville Jaguars and Cincinnati Bengals are projected to win their respective divisions. In the NFC, the Vikings retain the top seed as the league's only remaining undefeated team at 6-0. The 49ers fall to the No. 2 position despite a 6-1 record. The model also projects the Dallas Cowboys to win the NFC East for the first time this season, with a 38.5% probability of claiming the title over the New York Giants.

The playoff path begins in the wild-card round. In the AFC, the Chiefs, Jaguars, and Broncos advance. In the NFC, the 49ers, Seahawks, and Lions move on. The simulation has the Detroit Lions defeating the Dallas Cowboys 33-30, a result that would mark Detroit's first road playoff win in the Super Bowl era. The divisional round features the Bills beating the Broncos and the Vikings defeating the Seahawks 20-17.

The conference title games see the Bills overcoming the Chiefs 28-23 and the Vikings edging the 49ers 23-20. This victory would secure the Bills' first trip to the Super Bowl in 33 years. Both Buffalo and Minnesota have a combined 0-4 record in previous Super Bowls, the worst winless streak in NFL history. The final game is scheduled for SoFi Stadium on Valentine's Day.

Oh's model gives the Bills a 12.97% chance of winning the championship. The Vikings have an 11.15% probability. The Chiefs, 49ers, and Jaguars are the only other teams with a chance above 8%. This marks the first week the Bills have been projected as the champions in Oh's tracking.