Mississippi Senate race forces Trump into a late-October defensive stop

President Donald Trump arrives in Corinth, Mississippi, on Monday to campaign with Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith. The visit marks the final week of a midterm cycle in which the Republican majority faces its most serious tests since the party took control of the presidency.

Mississippi is one of the nation's most reliably Republican states. Trump won the state three times by an average margin of nearly 20 percentage points. Hyde-Smith is the favorite to retain her seat. Yet the race has drawn national attention because Democratic challenger Scott Colom has kept the contest within striking distance.

Colom, a local prosecutor, has outpaced Hyde-Smith in fundraising since launching his campaign last year. He aims to exploit voter dissatisfaction with inflation and the Iran war. His campaign gained momentum this month with an advertisement featuring Hyde-Smith, a former state agriculture commissioner, telling consumers they have "so many other proteins to choose from" in response to rising beef prices.

The ad attributes the higher costs to Trump's tariffs and fuel spikes caused by the Iran conflict. It concludes with Colom saying Mississippi should "pick another senator instead." Colom’s team later posted a social media video using artificial intelligence to depict Hyde-Smith dodging questions. The campaign removed the video after the Mississippi attorney general warned it might violate state law on deepfakes.

Democrats are spending heavily in the state. Their Senate super PAC has invested $1.2 million in the race. While that sum is small compared to contests in Texas or Georgia, it carries more weight in Mississippi’s smaller television markets. Mississippi has not elected a Democratic senator since 1947. The last Democratic victory in a Senate race there occurred in 1982 when segregationist John Stennis won reelection.

The midterm elections threaten to shift power in Washington. Republicans hold a 53-47 Senate majority. Democrats must flip at least four seats to take control. In the House, Republicans began the cycle with a 220-215 advantage. A national gerrymandering fight has made nine Democratic-held seats more favorable to Republicans based on 2024 presidential outcomes.

Trump’s itinerary continues to pit him against former President Barack Obama and former Vice President Kamala Harris. Harris is campaigning in Wisconsin with Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley. Crowley faces Representative Tom Tiffany for governor. If elected, Crowley would become the state’s first Black governor.

In Georgia, Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff and gubernatorial nominee Keisha Lance Bottoms are receiving support from Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear. Beshear serves as chairman of the Democratic Governors' Association. He is a likely candidate for president in 2028. This visit follows Trump’s second October stop in Georgia.

Progressive Democrats are focusing on Minnesota. Senate nominee Peggy Flanagan is welcoming House Progressive Caucus Chairwoman Pramila Jayapal to advocate for a national health insurance plan. House Democrats are also spending nearly $2.5 million in Minnesota and Indiana districts that were previously considered solid Republican territory. The Minnesota target is a rural district that has been reliably Republican for generations, except for a recent period when it was represented by Tim Walz.

Nearly 30 million voters have already cast ballots. The remaining week of campaigning will determine whether Republicans can protect their House majority, secure their Senate lead, and maintain their advantage in state capitals. The outcome of the Mississippi race serves as a bellwether for the national effort to hold onto power.