Carolina Forward: Democrat Early Voting Lead Hits Record High for Midterms

North Carolina elections have historically turned on the behavior of unaffiliated voters, a group that makes up 40% of the state's electorate. New data released by Carolina Forward shows that this year's early voting numbers are the most favorable for Democrats in the last four midterms.

As of November 2, 2026, Democrats hold a lead of 343,546 votes in combined mail and in-person early voting. In 2018, the same metric stood at D+250,368. The 2018 election saw Democrats gain nine seats in the State House and six in the State Senate, their largest legislative gains this century. The current margin is 93,178 votes greater than that 2018 lead.

The electorate composition has shifted since then. Approximately 3.1 million voters are now unaffiliated, an increase of 8% from 2018. A September 2026 poll found that 75% of these voters view the Democratic Party unfavorably and 76% view the Republican Party unfavorably. These voters are younger, with a median age of 43, compared to 52 for Democrats and 53 for Republicans.

Turnout among young voters has also risen. Voters aged 18 to 25 cast 201,143 mail and in-person early ballots so far. This figure is 1.9 percentage points higher than their share in 2022 and 1.2 points higher than in 2018. Young voters currently represent 7.5% of Democratic ballots and 9.1% of unaffiliated ballots.

Racial turnout patterns show distinct changes. Black voters have cast 21.2% of mail and in-person early ballots, nearly matching their 21.7% share in 2018. White voters have cast 66.4% of these ballots, down from 71.3% in 2018. The share of registered voters identifying as Hispanic or Latino has grown from 2.8% to 4.7%, though their ballot share remains at 3.4%.

Low-propensity voters, defined as those who voted in zero or one of the last three federal elections or skipped 2022, show a strong Democratic lean. Democrats hold a lead of 180,680 votes in this category. In 2018, that lead was 85,094 votes. Low-propensity voters now make up 19% of Republican ballots, down from 30% in 2018, while remaining at 30% for Democrats.

First-time voters are also skewing Democratic. Nineteen percent of Democratic ballots so far come from first-time registrants, compared to 13% for Republicans. In 2018, the split was 17% for Democrats and 16% for Republicans.

In the two competitive congressional races identified by the Cook Political Report, Democrats hold early voting leads. In District 11, where Democrat Jamie Ager faces Republican Jennifer Balkcom, Democrats lead by 6 points. In District 1, incumbent Democrat Don Davis leads Republican Laurie Buckhout by 13 points.

State legislative control remains uncertain despite the statewide numbers. The fate of constitutional amendments and the defensibility of statewide victories depend on Election Day turnout. Both parties have incentives to maximize voter participation on November 3.

The data indicates that while Democrats have secured a strong position in early voting, the final outcome hinges on the participation rate of unaffiliated and low-propensity voters on Election Day.