Nonprofits spend heavily before Israeli vote

Israelis are set to cast ballots on Tuesday, October 27, in a vote that will determine whether the current government completes its full term. Inside the ruling Likud party, members are split on the likelihood of victory, with some feeling secure and others worried about rising turnout among opponents.

The uncertainty stems partly from internal polling led by Shlomo Filber. A Likud source described the division within the party by stating, "We have some who are very sure of themselves, and some who are less so." The source characterized Filber's potential impact as binary: "Either Momo comes out a king, or Momo goes home. It's one or the other."

A major source of anxiety for Likud officials is the financial activity of nonprofits and organizations supporting rival candidates. Party sources claim these groups are spending large sums to mobilize voters without using direct party funds. This effort includes social media advertising, physical signage, field events, and transportation services for Arab voters. The groups are also attempting to bring Israelis living abroad back to the country to vote.

One Likud insider labeled this activity "the nonprofits affair on steroids." The argument is that these groups provide a support network that bypasses standard party financing rules. However, sources did not provide documentation for the specific funding amounts cited or for the claim that the operations were technically illegal. Likud also criticized the Central Elections Committee for focusing on campaign video limits and public resource use while paying less attention to this outside spending.

As the vote nears, Likud is organizing a major ground operation to prevent right-wing voters from defecting to smaller political lists. The party recently attempted to persuade Brig.-Gen. (res.) Ofer Winter, leader of the People of Israel party, to drop out of the race. Those talks failed, and Winter remains in the contest. Rabbi Eli Sadan, who was involved in the discussions, issued a statement supporting Winter after the talks concluded.

Likud is also engaging with other right-wing factions. The party has been courting supporters of the joint ticket led by Yoaz Hendel and Yaron Zelekha. Additionally, the Ahi party, led by Rabbi Abergel, has already withdrawn from the race following negotiations with Likud. During those talks, the parties discussed a potential law that would allow the Ahi party to appoint a deputy minister.

A survey published days before the election indicated that nearly one-third of Israeli voters had not yet decided how they would vote. This large group of undecided voters adds to the unpredictability of the outcome as the various campaigns intensify their efforts in the final hours before polling stations open.