Trump swaps red-state rallies for TV broadcasts as youth turnout gap widens

President Donald Trump has canceled his scheduled in-person rallies in Iowa and Kansas for the weekend. He will hold a rally in Florida on Friday and plans to host as many as 20 telerallies by broadcast. This shift in strategy comes days before the midterm election. Trump told reporters that the decision to drop the Kansas event was unrelated to the electoral prospects of the Republican candidate or his own physical stamina. He berated a reporter who asked about his health. Several senior Republican officials expressed relief at the change. One official said, "He hasn't moved the needle anywhere."

Early voting numbers show a sharp divide between the parties. In 25 states reporting party registration data, registered Democrats are leading registered Republicans by nearly 15 points. This gap is 10 points larger than at the same time in 2024, according to data from Catalist. The disparity is most pronounced among younger voters. Democrats lead Republicans in turnout by 31 points among voters younger than 30. This margin is 20 points higher than two years ago. Among voters ages 30 to 49, the Democratic lead stands at 27 points, a 15 point increase from 2024. The gap is smaller for voters 65 and older, where Democrats hold an 11 point lead.

The dynamic is driven by a drop in participation among young Republicans. Republicans under age 30 have cast just 30% of the ballots they cast at this point in 2024. Younger Democrats have cast 63% of their previous ballots. The gap is narrower among older voters. Republicans age 65 and older are at 72% of the same point two years ago, while older Democrats are at 84%. A recent national poll by CNN found that younger Republicans and Republican-leaning independents are highly unmotivated to vote. They are also more critical of the country's state than their older counterparts.

Elon Musk has increased his involvement in the race. A super PAC that received $10 million from Musk is using an AI-powered robocall campaign in Texas. The calls attack Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico for taking money from data center special interest groups. Talarico called the move "pretty rich" and said he is the only candidate in the race with a plan to crack down on data center companies. Musk posted on X on Friday that he is concerned about what Democrats would do if they won control of the House, Senate, and the 2028 presidential election. He said Democrats could make Puerto Rico a state and increase the size of the Supreme Court. He wrote, "This would result in America becoming a permanent one-party state and the end of democracy in any meaningful sense of the word."

The Justice Department has accelerated a criminal probe into the Alaska Senate race. Sources said the department is investigating whether Democrats sought to confuse voters by recruiting a candidate intended to siphon votes from the Republican. The DOJ filed a lawsuit last week seeking to delay certification if Sen. Dan Sullivan loses. The department amended the lawsuit after reports that Mary Peltola's campaign helped recruit Daniel J. Sullivan, a different candidate with the same name. The new filing alleges that Peltola's campaign and a national Democratic office submitted misleading arguments about their knowledge of the effort. State officials expect more subpoenas today.

Voters in Anchorage said the controversy is not changing their votes. Several residents at a polling center in midtown told reporters that the dueling Sullivans issue would not influence their choice. A state official noted that some well-informed voters still fill out ballots incorrectly and need replacements. It is unclear how many spoiled ballots are related to the confusion. The DOJ has also launched a second emergency appeal in California. It seeks to segregate ballots based on a list of 20,000 supposed noncitizens assembled by the administration. The department also issued federal grand jury subpoenas to local election officials.

Republican leaders are working to mobilize their base. Hilario Deleon, chairman of the Milwaukee County Republican Party, said his group has spent two years reaching new voters turned out by Trump. He acknowledged that many remain unaware of the stakes in November. An RNC official said the party faces a tougher task than Democrats. Republicans must sell voters on Trump's accomplishments amid economic concerns while arguing that a Democratic takeover of Congress would be worse. That is harder than saying, "Orange Man bad," the official said. We just have to bother the crap out of these people to get them to vote, the official added.