Senate control hinges on seven states

The U.S. Senate remains undecided as of Tuesday night, with control likely to hinge on seven competitive states. Two of these states use ranked choice voting, a process that can extend the counting period significantly. While House results may emerge sooner due to wider margins, the Senate race could take days or even weeks to fully resolve.

Georgia and Florida are the first major flashpoints. In Georgia, Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff is favored to defeat Republican Rep. Mike Collins. The gubernatorial race is tighter, pitting billionaire Rick Jackson against former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms. State Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger stated that new laws require counties to report results within an hour of polls closing. In South Carolina, the Senate race between Sen. Darline Graham and Democrat Annie Andrews is described as a toss up by national polls, though the Cook Political Report gives Republicans the edge.

By 7:30 p.m. ET, North Carolina and Ohio become focal points. In North Carolina, former Gov. Roy Cooper challenges Michael Whatley for the Senate seat. This is the most likely Democratic flip, as the last time Democrats won a Senate race there was in 2008. In Ohio, Republican Sen. Jon Husted and former Sen. Sherrod Brown are deadlocked. The governor’s race features Amy Acton leading Vivek Ramaswamy, whose recent attack ad against Acton has drawn significant backlash.

At 8 p.m. ET, polls close in more than half the country. Maine presents a challenge for incumbent Republican Sen. Susan Collins, who faces a tough race despite her resilience. In Florida, Republican Rep. Byron Donalds holds a slight poll lead in the governor’s race against David Jolly. The state’s redistricted congressional map will be tested, with seven House seats considered competitive by the Cook Political Report. Pennsylvania, which had three toss-up House races, now sees all three leaning toward Democrats.

The 9 p.m. ET block includes Arizona, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, and Texas. In Texas, Democrat James Talarico faces Republican Ken Paxton for governor. A Democrat has not won a statewide Texas office since the early 1990s. In Kansas, Republican Sen. Roger Marshall fights Democrat Adam Hamilton in a race that has become too close to call. Iowa’s open Senate seat is competitive, with Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson facing Democrat Josh Turek. Michigan’s race between Abdul El-Sayed and Mike Rogers remains a toss up, with the governor’s race also favoring Democrat Jocelyn Benson.

Mountain West states close polls at 10 p.m. ET. Montana’s 1st Congressional District is a toss up between Democrat Sam Forstag and Republican Aaron Flint. In Nevada, Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo faces Democrat Aaron Ford in a competitive gubernatorial race. The Pacific Northwest and California close polls at 11 p.m. ET. California’s congressional map, redrawn by voters in 2025, has tilted close races toward Democrats in the final weeks.