Ranked-choice voting and tight margins will delay Senate outcome

Seven states will determine the final outcome of the 2026 Senate race, with margins so narrow that results may not be known for weeks. Two of these states use ranked-choice voting, a system that often requires days to tally preferences. This procedural delay contrasts with the House race, where larger margins in most districts should clarify control sooner. The Senate majority could hinge on a single seat, making the counting process in these tight contests critical.

Georgia and South Carolina close their polls at 7 p.m. Eastern Time. In Georgia, Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff leads Republican Representative Mike Collins for the Senate seat. The governor’s race remains competitive between billionaire Rick Jackson and former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms. Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger noted that new laws require counties to report results within one hour of polls closing. In South Carolina, the Senate race between Darline Graham and Annie Andrews is described as a toss-up by national polls, though the Cook Political Report favors Republicans.

North Carolina and Ohio close polls at 7:30 p.m. Eastern Time. Analysts view North Carolina as the most likely Democratic pickup for a Senate seat, pitting former Governor Roy Cooper against Michael Whatley. Democrats have not won a Senate seat in the state since 2008. In Ohio, Senator Jon Husted and former Senator Sherrod Brown are deadlocked in a race that has drawn attention due to the state’s recent shift toward solidly Republican voting patterns. The governor’s race in Ohio features Democrat Amy Acton leading against Vivek Ramaswamy, whose recent advertisement attacking Acton has generated significant backlash.

Polls close at 8 p.m. Eastern Time in twelve states, including Florida, Pennsylvania, and New Hampshire. In Florida, Governor Byron Donalds holds a slight poll advantage over David Jolly, while Senator Ashley Moody is poised to defeat Angie Nixon. Florida’s redistricted House map presents seven competitive seats, two of which are toss-ups. In Pennsylvania, three previously toss-up House races now lean Democratic. New Hampshire sees Representative Chris Pappas widening his lead over former Senator John Sununu, though Republicans view the state as a potential long-shot opportunity.

Major poll closures occur at 9 p.m. Eastern Time in fifteen states, including Arizona, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, and Texas. Arizona’s governor’s race between Katie Hobbs and Andy Biggs has tilted toward Hobbs. In Texas, State Representative James Talarico faces Attorney General Ken Paxton for governor, with Talarico potentially taking an early lead from mail-in ballots. Kansas sees Senator Roger Marshall challenged by Democrat Adam Hamilton, while Iowa’s open Senate race remains close between Ashley Hinson and Josh Turek. Michigan’s governor’s race between Abdul El-Sayed and Mike Rogers remains a toss-up despite heavy spending on targeted ads.

Montana, Nevada, and Utah close polls at 10 p.m. Eastern Time. Montana’s first congressional district race between Sam Forstag and Aaron Flint is a toss-up. The state’s Senate race includes independent candidate Seth Bodnar, who poses a threat to the Republican incumbent. In Nevada, Governor Joe Lombardo faces Attorney General Aaron Ford in a contest considered too close to call.

Pacific Time states, including California, Idaho, Oregon, and Washington, close polls at 11 p.m. Eastern Time. California’s new congressional map, approved by voters in 2025, has reduced competitiveness for Republicans. Most close House races in the state have tilted toward Democrats in recent weeks.

The counting process in the seven tight Senate states will define the chamber’s majority. Ranked-choice voting in two of these states will extend the timeline for final results. House control may become clearer as margins are wider in most districts, but the Senate outcome will depend on the final counts in these specific contests.