North Carolina Senate Race: Cooper Extends Lead Over Whatley

Former North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper now holds a nine point lead over Republican challenger Michael Whatley in the state Senate race. A new East Carolina University poll released on Sunday shows Cooper at 54 percent and Whatley at 45 percent among likely voters. One percent of respondents supported a minor party or write in candidate.

The survey was conducted from October 26 to 29. It included 1,041 registered North Carolina voters who had voted or were likely to vote in the 2026 general election. The study has a credibility interval of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. Cooper’s lead has grown from seven points in the previous poll to nine points in this latest measurement.

Cooper performs particularly well with independent voters, holding a 14 point advantage in that demographic. He receives 56 percent support from independents while Whatley receives 42 percent. The former governor also maintains a higher favorability rating, with 52 percent of respondents viewing him favorably against 39 percent who view him unfavorably. Whatley’s favorability stands at 34 percent with 44 percent viewing him unfavorably.

Voters identified the economy and cost of living as their top concern, with 47 percent naming it as the most important issue. Cooper leads Whatley by a wide margin among these voters, 67 percent to 33 percent. Border security and immigration ranked as the second most important issue at 12 percent, followed by foreign policy conflicts with Iran at 10 percent.

The poll reveals distinct divides by demographic groups. Cooper leads among Black voters 91 percent to 6 percent and among women 59 percent to 41 percent. Whatley leads among white voters 57 percent to 42 percent and among men 50 percent to 48 percent. The Republican also holds a narrow lead among voters 65 and older, 52 percent to 48 percent, and among those without a four year college degree, 51 percent to 49 percent.

Cooper holds stronger support among voters younger than 65, 56 percent to 42 percent, and those with a four year degree or higher, 62 percent to 37 percent. President Donald Trump’s approval rating in North Carolina stands at 42 percent, with 54 percent disapproving of his performance. Peter Francia, director of ECU’s Center for Survey Research, stated that Cooper appears headed to a likely victory as Whatley has been unable to close the gap.

Researchers combined a statewide random sample with an online panel to supplement responses from younger, Hispanic, and Black voters. The results were weighted to reflect the state’s likely electorate. Francia noted that determining the composition of the electorate is a complex part of polling analysis as Election Day approaches.