Unions Pull Labor Support Before Vote

The Australian Services Union placed digital advertisements in the digital feeds of voters in Niddrie, Pascoe Vale, and Bentleigh with a single message: “Ben lied. Labor lies.” The ads feature a large image of Premier Ben Carroll and target the government’s handling of local council rate caps. This move marks a sharp break for the union, which had previously aligned with the Labor government.

The Electrical Trades Union took a different but equally consequential step on Wednesday. The state council voted to stop running a statewide campaign for Labor. The union had spent more than $1.6 million supporting the party in the previous election. Instead of campaigning, the ETU will divert those funds to prepare for the construction royal commission and support its members who may be called to testify.

A copy of the ETU resolution states the union will not run a third-party campaign for the 2026 state election. The document explains that resources previously earmarked for the campaign will be used to defend the union and its members in the royal commission. It also cites the need to respond to the impact of a potential Coalition majority on blue-collar workers.

The resolution references polling commissioned by the ETU and received at the start of October. That polling predicted Labor would win only 25 seats, which is 10 fewer than forecasts made before the July leadership spill. The spill resulted in Ben Carroll replacing Jacinta Allan as premier. The resolution notes that media reports indicate Labor’s support has declined since that leadership change.

Tash Wark, secretary of the ASU’s Victorian branch, explained the union’s decision to run ads instead of doorknocking. She stated that Premier Ben Carroll chose not to show up for workers, so workers can no longer show up for him in November. The union claims it had a deal with former premier Jacinta Allan to lift the cap on rates that councils can charge residents. Carroll scrapped that deal shortly after taking over leadership, citing concerns about cost-of-living pressures for non-council workers.

The ASU has paid for the ads to run on news sites and Google across several key electorates. These include Carroll’s own seat of Niddrie, Pascoe Vale, which Labor holds by a 2% margin against the Greens, and Bentleigh, a target seat for the Liberals. The ads will also appear in seats held by the deputy premier, the treasurer, and the local government minister.

Wark said the union would be willing to campaign for Labor if the government reversed its position. She noted that no one at the ASU wanted to run ads against Labor MPs, but the government’s actions made it necessary. The ETU, which backed the former premier, strongly opposed the royal commission into allegations of corruption on the Big Build project. In June, the ETU was one of three unions to launch an advertising blitz challenging claims that corruption on government building sites cost taxpayers $15 billion.

A Victorian government spokesperson responded by saying Ben Carroll is fighting for working people. The spokesperson warned that a Liberal-One Nation coalition would scrap penalty rates, sack 31,700 public sector workers, end paid parental leave, and implement $40 billion in cuts. One Labor MP, speaking anonymously because they were not authorized to comment publicly, accused the ETU of throwing the toys out of the cot because they did not get their way.

The ETU had not published ads for this election as of the same point in the cycle four years ago. Back then, their ads reached 2 million people on Facebook and 1.4 million on YouTube. An ETU source, who requested anonymity, said the union movement has been muted toward Labor in the lead-up to this election. The source noted that the world is in a different place than it was six months ago, let alone four years ago.

Ben Carroll is seeking a fourth consecutive term for Labor at the election on 28 November. The latest polling cited in the report places Labor behind the Coalition on a two-party-preferred basis, at 44% to 55%. The rise of One Nation could complicate the final result as the election approaches.