Midterms and jobs report clash with tech earnings in volatile week ahead

The stock market enters a turbulent week where midterm election results and key labor data will intersect with major corporate earnings. President Donald Trump has indicated he is waiting for the midterms to pass before ordering new military action against Iran. A political shift against data center infrastructure could impact the artificial intelligence trade, while heightened geopolitical tension poses risks to oil prices and bond yields.

Apple reports earnings Monday after the close. This marks the first earnings call for John Ternus in his role as CEO. Management faces pressure to demonstrate that demand for the iPhone 18 Pro and new Mac products remains resilient despite inflation-induced demand pressures in the PC market, a trend highlighted by recent guidance from Intel. Investors are watching to see if price hikes on hardware have been fully passed through to customers, protecting gross margins. The high-margin services business is expected to play a critical role in overall profitability.

Eaton and DuPont report earnings Tuesday morning. For Eaton, the focus is on manufacturing capacity expansion and margin growth in data center products. The company is also integrating Boyd Thermal, which added liquid cooling capabilities to its portfolio. Investors will look for updates on the divestiture of its mobility unit and improvements in the aerospace segment, which saw roughly 13% year-over-year growth last quarter despite missing targets. DuPont faces scrutiny on organic sales growth in healthcare and water sectors. The company’s Middle East water business has experienced disruptions due to the war in Iran, though strength in industrial and semiconductor markets has provided an offset. The market will also examine how oil and gas inflation is affecting EBITDA margins.

Qnity Electronics reports Wednesday. Shares have fallen nearly 20% since an August earnings report that exceeded expectations. Investors will listen for commentary on current-quarter demand, particularly as Intel flagged a shortage of advanced organic substrates that is limiting chip output. The company must show if strength in AI chip manufacturing can offset potential weakness in consumer electronics. Early comments on 2027 outlooks will be notable for investors assessing the potential for upside in the AI buildout.

Cardinal Health and Kimberly-Clark report Thursday morning. Cardinal Health shares are within 2% of all-time highs, leaving little room for error. Investors expect double-digit earnings growth and will seek details on the economics of its renewed distribution deal with CVS Health, which extends through 2032. Trends in generic medicine shipments and performance in nuclear pharmaceuticals are key metrics. Kimberly-Clark preannounced better-than-feared results on Oct. 15, likely tied to its ongoing acquisition of Kenvue, which is expected to close by year-end. The company will provide updates on cost inflation, logistics, and sales trends in China following regulatory scrutiny of its diapers.

The labor market will be the primary economic focus Friday with the release of October nonfarm payrolls. Economists project 75,000 payroll additions and a steady unemployment rate of 4.2%. Inflation remains well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, potentially forcing rate hikes in coming months. The CME FedWatch Tool places the odds of a quarter-point rate hike at the December meeting at just under 75%. Leading up to Friday, the September JOLTS report and ADP’s October employment survey will offer early signals on hiring trends.

The week begins Monday with the ISM Manufacturing PMI at 10 a.m. ET. Apple, Diamondback Energy, and Equitable Holdings report after the bell. Tuesday is midterm election day, with the JOLTS report and factory orders data also releasing at 10 a.m. ET. DuPont, Eaton, and Pfizer report before the bell, while Super Micro Computer and AMD report after. Wednesday brings the ADP private payrolls report at 8:15 a.m. ET and the ISM Services PMI at 10 a.m. ET. Qnity Electronics, CVS Health, and Uber report before the bell, with McKesson and MetLife following after. Thursday features initial jobless claims at 8:30 a.m. ET, with Kimberly-Clark reporting before the bell.