Asia-Pacific Leaders Await US Midterm Results Amid Energy Crisis

Businesses and governments across the Asia-Pacific region are tracking Tuesday's US midterm elections with intense focus. The region has suffered severe energy shocks from the United States and Israel's war on Iran, which began in January. Leaders hope the new congressional makeup will force policy shifts, though most analysts predict limited changes.

The conflict has disrupted supply chains that previously relied on the Gulf. Before the war, the Asia-Pacific region imported most oil and gas passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran closed this chokepoint in response to strikes, causing shortages. The Philippines, which depends on the Gulf for over 90 percent of its crude oil, has maintained a national energy emergency since March.

Soaring fuel costs have drained foreign exchange reserves in Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, and East Timar. Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam have spent heavily on fuel subsidies to protect consumers. Steven Okun, chief executive of Singapore-based APAC Advisors, noted that while everyone is watching the election, the region faces a difficult political reality.

Okun stated that a Democrat-controlled Congress is unlikely to end the eight-month conflict. He told Al Jazeera that the primary outcome would be investigations and oversight hearings. He suggested a potential impeachment of the secretary of defence is possible, but the war's overall impact on the region will remain unchanged.

Trump has claimed the attacks on Iran are acts of self-defense. He has ignored congressional resolutions directing him to withdraw US forces. Even if Democrats pass legislation to restrict military operations or cut funding, Trump can veto it. Overriding that veto requires a two-thirds majority in both chambers, a threshold Democrats are unlikely to reach.

Trade policy faces similar constraints. Trump imposed reciprocal tariffs of 10 percent to 50 percent on approximately 90 countries last year. Asia bore a heavy burden, with Cambodia facing a 49 percent tariff and Laos 48 percent. Vietnam and Myanmar faced rates of 46 percent and 45 percent, respectively.

After the Supreme Court struck down those tariffs in February, the administration imposed new tariffs in July. These range from 10 percent to 12.5 percent on goods from 60 partners accused of failing to stop forced labor imports. The list includes China, Japan, South Korea, and seven Southeast Asian nations. Okun argued that Congress cannot easily alter this trajectory.

Stephen Olson, a visiting fellow at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, sees a narrow opening for change. He wrote that a strong electoral rebuke of Trumpism could embolden a pro-free-trade wing of the Republican Party. A Democratic Congress might push for carve-outs that provide exporters with some relief, though deeper shifts may wait until the 2028 election.

Joshua Kurlantzick of the Council on Foreign Relations said the region wants more stability in trade and security guarantees. Countries seek a clearer US presence in the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait. Businesses are also watching whether a Republican loss will lead to greater congressional willingness to stand up to Trump on arms sales and economic unpredictability.

Analysts expect change in US policy regarding Chinese technology. The new Congress will pass tougher restrictions, including the Remote Access Security Act and the Chip Security Act. These bills aim to extend export controls and verify the location of advanced AI chips. Trump has held off approving a $14 billion package of arms sales to Taiwan to preserve a trade truce with China.

James Guild, an assistant professor at the Indonesian International Islamic University, warned that a lame-duck Trump hemmed in at home could turn more forcefully to foreign policy. He noted that Democrats have a poor record of effectively opposing Trump using conventional oversight tools. Guild said the region must wait to see if they rise to the moment this time.