Lula claims fourth term as Brazil's vote swings by 4.3 million

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva captured 51.79% of the vote to secure a fourth nonconsecutive term as Brazil's president. The 80-year-old leftist defeated far-right Senator Flávio Bolsonaro by a margin of 4.3 million votes in the runoff held this weekend. The result marks a historic reversal for the Workers' Party incumbent, who trailed in the first round earlier this month.

In that initial election, Flávio Bolsonaro garnered 56.1 million votes against Lula's 53.8 million. The senator held a 47.03% to 45.16% lead, a deficit that had not been overcome by a first-round runner-up since Brazil returned to democracy in 1985. In the weeks between ballots, polling narrowed to fractions of a percentage point as Lula's campaign mobilized supporters through digital platforms.

Lula called the outcome a defeat for denialism. He noted that he turned 81 on Tuesday, making the win an early birthday present. The victory consolidates the democratic resurgence Brazil has experienced since his return to office in 2022. However, the transition remains tense as Flávio Bolsonaro has refused to concede the result.

The senator cited a decision to extend voting hours by two extra hours as a reason for his refusal. Both campaigns had requested the extension for different strategic reasons. Flávio Bolsonaro, who is 45 years old, has already begun preparing for potential legal challenges, while his father, Jair Bolsonaro, continues to serve a 27-year prison sentence for plotting a coup.

During the campaign, the environment was a secondary issue to voters, who focused primarily on the economy and public security. Lula's administration reduced Amazon deforestation by more than 70% during his current term. He also cracked down on illegal mining and supported Indigenous communities in the region. The final presidential debate only briefly addressed these environmental policies.

Flávio Bolsonaro's campaign was marked by allegations of unfair digital treatment by Meta, a claim the company called unfounded. A dozen watchdog groups published reports suggesting the tech giant favored the senator. Meanwhile, a scandal involving a boat party attended by Flávio Bolsonaro during the 2020 pandemic further damaged his campaign's standing among voters.

Lula will now work with a newly elected congress that includes a record number of right-wing politicians. These legislators are often hostile to Indigenous rights and environmental protections. Despite this legislative headwind, Lula's win is seen as a stabilizing force for Brazil's democracy and its multilateral foreign policy stance against US influence.