National Falls to 29 Percent, Narrowing Lead Over Labour in Latest Vote

National Party support has dropped to 29 percent, cutting its lead over Labour to just two points in the latest 1News-Verian poll. Labour held steady at 27 percent, marking the first time since the election that the two major parties are statistically tied. The shift represents a three-point decline for National from its previous result of 32 percent recorded one week earlier.

The Green Party saw a one-point decrease to 15 percent. Te Pāti Māori, which is running a candidate-only campaign, fell to 0.1 percent, its lowest measurement in this polling series. Despite the low party vote, the party is pursuing an overhang strategy to increase the total number of seats in Parliament. If Te Pāti Māori wins four electorate seats and the Te Tai Tokerau Party wins one, the left bloc would secure 56 seats through Labour and the Greens.

National’s coalition partners gained support in this survey. Act rose one point to 12 percent, and New Zealand First climbed two points to 10 percent. By party vote alone, the right bloc would claim 61 seats, including 34 for National, 15 for Act, and 12 for New Zealand First. Opportunity Party support slipped one point to 6 percent, translating to eight seats that would give the party the balance of power. If Te Pāti Māori wins only one seat, the right bloc could form a government without needing Opportunity.

The preferred prime minister rankings show a similar tightening of the race. Christopher Luxon’s support surged four points to 24 percent, narrowing the gap with Labour leader Chris Hipkins, who stands at 18 percent. Last week’s poll had National at 32 percent and Labour at 27 percent. The current data reflects a snapshot of public opinion rather than a prediction of the final election result.

The survey was conducted between October 15 and October 19, 2026. A total of 1,003 eligible voters participated, with 500 contacted by mobile phone and 503 through online panels. The maximum sampling error is approximately 3.1 percentage points at a 95 percent confidence level. Researchers weighted the data to match Stats NZ population counts for age, gender, region, ethnicity, and education level. Undecided voters and non-voters were excluded from the party support figures.

The results indicate a volatile political environment ahead of the general election. The potential for an overhang remains a central feature of the electoral math. Both the left and right blocs face different seat counts depending on how many single-member constituencies Te Pāti Māori and other smaller parties win. The balance of power rests heavily on the performance of Opportunity and the successful execution of the overhang strategy by Te Pāti Māori.