Healthcare costs rise sharply as midterms near

Voters heading to the polls for Tuesday's midterm elections face rising healthcare bills. A KFF poll conducted earlier this month found that 25% of voters are very worried about affording healthcare, while over one-third are somewhat worried. These concerns align with data showing that average monthly benchmark premiums for Affordable Care Act plans increased from $497 in 2025 to $625 in 2026. KFF analysts project that finalized benchmark silver premiums will rise by an average of 13% next year, marking the second consecutive year of double-digit increases.

Employer-sponsored plans are also seeing cost growth. According to a new KFF survey, workers are paying nearly 10% more for premiums. The average single-coverage deductible reached $1,886 in 2025, up 43% since 2015. Prescription spending also climbed 12.7% in 2025 to $915 billion, and the American Society of Health-System Pharmacists projects the total will surpass $1 trillion in 2026. AARP's Public Policy Institute reported that the top 25 brand-name drugs have seen average price increases of 81% since entering the U.S. market.

Experts identify the use of artificial intelligence in medical billing as a key driver of these increases. Hospitals and clinics are adopting ambient AI scribes to document visits and generate notes. Insurance companies like Blue Cross Blue Shield and analytics firms such as Trilliant Health suggest these tools lead to secondary diagnoses that may not match the actual care provided. Zack Cooper, a professor at Yale, noted that this allows for more aggressive coding, pushing patients into higher billing categories. Sabrina Corlette of Georgetown University described a recent visit where an AI scribe reclassified a preventive checkup as a diagnostic visit because she asked a question, resulting in a co-payment she had not expected.

Tariffs are adding another layer of expense. The Food and Drug Administration estimates that 78% of active pharmaceutical ingredient manufacturers are located outside the United States. A study from Georgia Tech and the University of California, Davis found that federal tariffs on imported medical supplies totaled $3.4 billion in the first six months of 2025. Nearly 56% of that cost was passed on to medical facilities and potentially consumers in the form of higher prices. Cooper stated that anything entering the care production process that faces a tariff becomes more expensive, which raises overall care costs and insurance premiums.

The White House argues that its Most Favored Nation drug pricing agreements are offsetting some of these costs. Spokeswoman Allison Schuster said these deals, which link U.S. prices to the lowest prices in other developed nations, have saved Americans more than $1 billion. She noted that all 50 states, Washington D.C., and Puerto Rico have signed onto the model to provide MFN pricing for Medicaid. Meanwhile, trade groups like AHIP point to hospital monopolies and brand drugmakers as primary drivers of rising costs, while PhRMA argues that list prices do not account for rebates received by insurers.

Healthcare providers face complex pressures from supply chains and administrative changes. The American Hospital Association stated that affiliation and mergers can help keep hospitals open, particularly in rural areas, but acknowledged that corporate insurer dominance affects affordability. As voters weigh their economic concerns, the combination of AI-driven coding, import tariffs, and high drug prices continues to push healthcare costs higher for American families.